Preview: August non-farm payrolls by the numbers

What this means for your job search: The weakening job trend and "low hire" economy suggest increased competition for tech roles, as fewer new positions are likely to open up. Candidates should prepare for a more challenging environment by emphasizing their unique value and actively expanding their professional network. What's expected: Consensus estimate +56K (range -25K to +121K) July -23K June +63K Private consensus estimate +45K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.1% vs 4.1% prior Participation rate consensus 61.4% prior Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.9% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.0% y/y vs +3.2% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.1% prior Avg weekly hours exp 34.3 vs 34.3 prior August jobs so far: ADP employment report +38K (lowest since Jan) vs +47K expected and +46K prior ISM services employment 47.8 vs 47.4 prior ISM manufacturing employment 51.2 vs 52.5 exp and 52.8 prior Challenger Job Cuts 52,881 vs 33,429 prior Philly employment +27.9 vs +10.0 prior Empire employment +9.3 vs +11.4 prior Initial jobless claims survey week 206K vs 187K prior Revelio Labs +36.5K vs +79.2K prior Seasonally, the headline reading is weak in August, according to BMO. It has come in below estimates 71% of the time and beating 29% of the time, by 71k and 18k, respectively, on average. Similarly, 36% of previous unemployment prints for August have been higher-than-expected, 28% have been lower-than-estimates, and 36% have matched the consensus. August can be a tricky month for seasonal adjustments because of school start times so market participants will generally try to filter out educational jobs and look through them. The trend has been weakening in jobs lately and last week's initial benchmark revisions unexpectedly shaved jobs through March. Still, unemployment is running at just 4.1% and it's hard to see it as anything but the oft-discussed 'low hire/low fire' economy. In terms of trading, a soft report is the hint from these numbers and that would place further pressure on the US dollar, which is already weak after surprisingly-dovish comments from Fed Governor Chris Waller on Thursday. USD/JPY has also been hit by intervention (though not confirmed) and plunged 330 pips on the day, leaving a turbulent dynamic for FX traders through the report. In contrast, equities we