Prediction markets let you bet on layoffs. Do the masses think your company is next?

What this means for your job search: Given the strong market prediction for increased tech layoffs, expect a more competitive hiring landscape and be prepared to articulate your long-term value and adaptability. Focus on demonstrating skills resilient to automation and a clear understanding of how your contributions drive business efficiency and growth to stand out. Prediction markets let users bet on everything from sporting events to natural disasters and the outcomes of war. But they also set odds on layoffs and staff reductions at some of the largest companies, raising a question: If the market isn’t bullish on your company’s head count numbers for next quarter, should you start looking for a new job? On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, layoff figures for the tech sector have garnered significant action. On Kalshi, “ More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? ” has more than $31 million worth of wagers already placed, with the vast majority of money betting yes. The market is far more split on “ More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? ” with odds close to 50-50, offering bankers and lawyers less certainty than those in tech. Given the high trading volume and the strong certainty around the Kalshi market on tech layoffs, the market is a pretty trustworthy prediction, according to Asa Palley, an associate professor of business administration at the University of Virginia Darden School of Business, who researches quantitative modeling and decision analysis. Overall, public opinion of the economy is poor; the Gallup Economic Confidence Index reports that many Americans are pessimistic about the job market and the stability of the economy. Bets on layoffs may be a reflection of this sentiment. Palley explained that prediction markets can at times have an edge over industry experts and professional forecasters because of the granularity and number of questions they pose. Prediction market platforms let users bet on specific questions, like “ Will AI be the #1 reason for job cuts in August? ” or “ Will Tesla lay off 3,000 employees before October 1, 2026? ” In addition, the markets are always reacting to new information. “It’s that real-time nature of a prediction market that makes it so useful,” Palley says. Palley explained that when you look at the accuracy of prediction models across many different questions, the mar